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March 26, 2008

HOW TO AVOID MISTAKES IN STOCK MARKETS

Profit booking is the key to successful investing in stock market. Those investors who book profits regularly have a higher risk taking ability as they can afford to invest in stocks where others have not moved in yet. Over-owned stocks pose a higher risk of loss when the markets turn down.

There are some common mental mistakes we all make, that often lead to losses. Some of these avoidable errors are:

Over confidence

This can lead to complacency and over-exposure. It is the most common mistake investors make when they are making profits. In equity markets you can never throw caution to winds.

Herd Mentality

We often get swayed by what others are buying and then try to be a part of the crowd. We are tempted to believe that crowd is always right. If mid-caps are rising then we buy these stocks even when we know little about the companies. This leads to a paralysis when price suddenly falls and we are unable to take a call on the stock.

Excessive aversion to loss

Inability to book a loss when an investment goes wrong is the single biggest cause for losses to investors. More often than not, a small loss turns into a much bigger loss. Remember, a 40% loss started off as a 5% loss. Unless a stock has been bought on strong conviction of Long-term appreciation, those who make investments for quick gains must learn to exercise stop loss.

Fear of uncertainty

When we make money, there is instant euphoria. When we start to lose money, there is a sudden deer caught in the headlights type of emotion, which makes us unable to do the right thing. We fear that the moment we sell, will be the moment that it starts to rebound. This leads to inaction. If we book profits and the stock still moves higher, we feel bad. Therefore, if a stock is moving up most investors refuse to book gains. And many a times this ultimately leads to a loss.

Fear of making an incorrect decision and feeling stupid

This too leads to inaction. We often opt for inaction when faced with fear of making wrong choice. However, little do we realize that not acting in time too is a choice that we made unknowingly.

Reluctance to admit mistakes

This is another behavioural pattern that leads to incorrect decisions. In markets, we are loathe to admit that we made a wrong decision. However, admitting a mistake and taking corrective action often saves a lot of money.

Believing that investment success is due to their wisdom rather than a rising market, but failures are not their fault

This is another classical pattern. When the mid-caps are rising, we may believe that we were smart enough to identify the undiscovered jewels. However, believe it or not, if the sentiment turns no amount of ‘strong fundamentals’ is going to save their current valuations. The recent crash is a strong evidence of this fact where the mid-cap and the small-cap had a free fall.

Inaccurate assessment of investment horizon

Most investors make investments for short term but when the trade turns into a loss, they stick to it claiming that it was a long-term call. This could often lead to huge losses.

Forgetting the powerful tendency of regression to the mean

This is the most important lesson for investors. All stock prices must ultimately revert to their long-term averages. All sudden and sharp run-ups come to an end in a most unpleasant way for investors.

March 22, 2008

PORTFOLIO TRACKER TOOL

For any investor it is very important to keep track of his/her investments on day to day basis. In a volatile market when the market value of ones portfolio changes dramatically everyday, it becomes very difficult to calculate Profit and/or Loss on investments. So I have made a Portfolio Tracker Tool based on Excel.

The Portfolio Tracker can calculate the amount of profit or loss that you are making on individual stocks and also total amount of profit/loss that you are making on your entire portfolio. It can show the profit/loss in percentage terms. Beside that you can also know the percent weightage of each stock in your portfolio. All you have to do is just enter the name of the scrip, quantity of shares, purchase price per share and current market price of each stock. It’s a very valuable tool. I’m using it since 2004.

In order to access the tool click the link given below:

PORTFOLIO TRACKER TOOL

March 19, 2008

WEALTH CREATION IDEAS

WEALTH CREATION IDEAS

1. Investors have overwhelming affection for things that are certain.

2. Technology has changed but human psychology has not.

3. Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.

4. Never mistake activity for achievement in portfolio management.

5. Money is made when greed meets Mr. Earnings & Mr. Pessimism.

6. Trade with a trend not your Friend.

7. Quality, rather than quantity of ideas will result in Big Money.

8. Changes in opinion, but nothing else, cause changes in stock price.

9. In Investing, courage becomes the supreme virtue after analysis.

10. Own not the most, but the Best.

11. Investors & Traders learn nothing & forget everything.

12. Chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low quality stocks in boom time.

13. If we shopped for stocks the way we shop for socks, we would be better off.

14. Have ability to differentiate few outstanding companies from masses.

15. Though difficult to practice, think ahead of the crowd.

16. Plan your play & play your plan. Don’t delay.

17. Too much of churning is injurious to your wealth.

18. Patient investors, buying value instead of hype, win out.

19. Growth is not enough to sustain a profitable investment strategy.

20. Always play for meaningful stakes.

21. When you sell in desperation, you always sell cheap.

22. Earning money is easy, but preserving wealth is difficult.

23. There is no formula to figure out intrinsic value of a stock, you have to know the business.

24. Don’t confuse brains with the bull market.

25. Wealth Creation is the art of buying a rupee for 40 paise.

26. “Margin of Safety” renders unnecessary accurate estimate of future.

27. Multi-baggers are found in huts & lost in palaces.

28. When fear subsides, intrinsic value wins out.

29. No matter how fast firms are growing, there are limits to valuation.

30. No stock picker has ever had a 100% success rate.

31. Valuation always matters when buying stocks.

32. Short term transactions frequently act as invisible foot, kicking society in the shin.

33. Never buy a stock because it has low price.

34. Three things determine the direction of the market: Earnings, Interest Rate & Psychology.

35. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

March 15, 2008

Strategies For New Investors

Since Reliance Power IPO many people are waiting on the sideline to invest money in stock market. But due to the failure of Rel. Power IPO and simultaneous fall in over-all market these people are left totally confused. The good thing now is that people has not panicked and still want to put their money. They are just waiting to time the market. Moreover there are number of people who want to build their portfolio.

For such investors who are totally new to the market, the best strategy would be to start building their portfolio without waiting for the market to bottom out. One must remember that it is practically impossible to time the market. One cannot buy at absolute bottom and sell it at absolute peak. Hence, points to be kept in mind are:

1) Invest in Large Cap and Reputed Mid-caps only

Start deploying 15-20% of one’s capital at this level in the Large Cap companies which are 35-40% below their January highs. There are many such companies which have seen such a fall. Besides that there are many reputed mid-cap companies which are now available at attractive levels. One can deploy another 15-20% of cash when market falls further or when the stocks short listed by you falls 5-10% from your purchase price. This way one can average out one’s acquisition price. But remember to invest in well-known companies only as these are the safe bets as against small and relatively unknown companies where risk of wiping out of your capital is much higher.

2) Never invest in Lump-sum at one go

It is really a bad idea to invest your entire capital at one go. However convinced you may be that market or your stock will move higher, you should not be fully invested at once. A little bit of bad news which may emerge out of the blue is enough to bring down the stock price further. Recent case being that of ICICI Bank which was quite attractive at Rs.1000 before the news about its indirect involvement in the sub-prime crisis broke out. Those who might have invested his entire capital allocated for that scrip at above Rs. 1000 would not be in a position to add more quantity of that scrip at current level. So deploy only 15-20% of capital at every attractive level.

3) Ideal Portfolio should not have more than 10 to 15 scrip

This is one of the most important things which small investors often don’t care about while building portfolio. Some people invest their entire capital in just one or two scrip while others go on buying large number of scrip. Sometimes they have more 50-60 different scrip in their portfolio which is not at all a good strategy. A large number of scrip in one’s portfolio has many demerits of its own. While over-exposure in just one or two companies is too risky as your entire fortune is linked with those companies only.

Therefore, ideally a good portfolio is one in which there are no more than 10 to 15 different companies. Investment should be spread across those sectors which are out performing the market or have a great future ahead. Never invest in many companies in the same sector. Just one or two well-known and profitable companies from each sector should be picked.

4) Have Patience

Give some time to your investments to grow. Never act in haste either to buy or sell. Usually large-cap move up immediately if market rises. But mid-caps even the quality mid-cap take time to rise. So give adequate time for your investment to rise. Sell or book partial profit only when your investment gives very high return.

March 13, 2008

Time to start Shopping!

Today sensex closed at 15357 which is lowest closing since August 31, 2007. Sensex may fall to a lower levels may be 1000 point more from here due to global as well as local factors. Moreover one must keep in mind that our market always overdo the things whether on the upside or the downside. But prices of some of the quality scrips have reached an attractive levels.

I think this is the time one must start buying the quality stocks whether large-cap or mid-cap. Especially those waiting on the sideline with intention of entering the market should start putting at least 20% of their capital. They can invest further if the market falls even more. But one must start investing only if they have one year horizon in mind because this is not a trader’s market anymore nor can one invest with a view of doubling their capital instantly.

My Favorite Stocks for Long-term Investment:

Everest Kanto

Reliance Inds.

GMR Infra.

ICICI Bank

HDFC Bank.

Stocks for Short-term trading:

Buy Cairn India near 201-210 level and sell above 240.

Sesa Goa can be traded in the range between 2900 to 3600.

Everest Kanto can be traded in the range between 276 to 310.